A Study of Forecast Errors in a Barotropic Operational Model for Predicting Paths of Tropical Storms.
Final rept. 1 Oct 74-30 Sep 77,
MASSACHUSETTS INST OF TECH CAMBRIDGE DEPT OF METEOROLOGY
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To enable use of satellite cloud-motion vectors in the SANBAR model for prediction of tropical storm tracks, we have derived regression equations for estimating the tropospherically averaged flow from information at one, two, or three levels. Two-level results represent an improvement over climatology and a third level yields substantial further improvement. We find from a study of the 1975 season in the Atlantic Basin that reduction in initial position and track-velocity errors can produce substantial improvement in position-forecast accuracy out to 72 hours range. We recommend a new procedure for evaluating and using wind observations within the region influenced by the storm circulation. The new method has the potential for substantial reduction of present forecast error for storms within 24 hours of landfall. Author