Accession Number:

ADA048983

Title:

Creating Mathematical Models of Judgment Processes: From Policy-Capturing to Policy-Specifying.

Descriptive Note:

Final rept. 1 Jul 75-1 Jul 76,

Corporate Author:

AIR FORCE HUMAN RESOURCES LAB BROOKS AFB TEX

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

1977-08-01

Pagination or Media Count:

78.0

Abstract:

Planning for a computer-based personnel job opportunities system for the Air Force led to a requirement for a procedure to generate a payoff or value of the assignment of each person to each possible job. This report discusses three methods of weighting different information to form a single indicator of payoff or value, explicit weighting and two implicit weighting methods-policy-capturing and policy-specifying. The two implicit weighting methods are combined into a more comprehensive method referred to as policy-development. The policy-capturing process presents a series of decision situations to one or more policy makers and the policy maker assigns to each situation a number which reflects the value or payoff. Then a mathematical model is derived by obtaining the regression equation that best predicts the policy makers judgments. Policy-specifying, which is the main focus in this report, does not depend on a sample of actual judgments to determine the regression weights, but attempts to translate into mathematical form a policy makers more global statements about the general properties that the model should have. The mixing of policy-capturing and policy-specifying leads to a process called policy-development. Author

Subject Categories:

  • Administration and Management
  • Psychology
  • Personnel Management and Labor Relations
  • Numerical Mathematics

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE