Accession Number:

ADA048645

Title:

Advanced Technology Manpower Forecasting. Naval Requirements for Skilled Manpower and the Introduction of New Technology.

Descriptive Note:

Final rept. 22 Oct 76-31 Oct 77,

Corporate Author:

B-K DYNAMICS INC ROCKVILLE MD

Personal Author(s):

• Cook,Pamela
• Kane,Timothy P.
• McQuie,Robert

Report Date:

1977-12-30

Pagination or Media Count:

65.0

Abstract:

This study investigates the feasibility and usefulness of forecasting techniques applied to the manpower requirements and research and development planning and programming cycles. A major thrusts of the effort is directed towards creating data bases in computer and nuclear manpower requirements from 1950 to the present, 3rd generation computer, nuclear, laser, and electro-optics technologies, and 24 weapon systems aircraft, ships, and bases from 1946 to the present. Three methodologies are used to forecast manpower requirements for emerging technologies. Growth curves and historical analogies are used to forecast manpower requirements based on similarities between existing and emerging technologies which are useful in validating more complex forecasting techniques. A system disaggregation technique is used to analogize manpower requirements on a component by component basis compared between an existing reference system and a perceived application of a new technology. A linear program allocates manpower over a 30-year period to forecast changes in the number of skills required by the addition or deletion of technology represented in the 24 weapon system types. Author

Descriptors:

• *NAVAL PERSONNEL
• *MANPOWER UTILIZATION
• *FORECASTING
• DATA BASES
• NUCLEAR WEAPONS
• REQUIREMENTS
• SKILLS
• NAVAL VESSELS
• ELECTROOPTICS
• PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT
• GROWTH(GENERAL)
• LINEAR PROGRAMMING
• LASERS
• NAVAL AIRCRAFT
• MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION
• STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
• NAVAL PLANNING
• PROGRAMMERS
• NAVAL SHORE FACILITIES
• COMPUTER OPERATORS
• TECHNOLOGY FORECASTING

Subject Categories:

• Personnel Management and Labor Relations
• Statistics and Probability

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE