Accession Number:

ADA048567

Title:

Research on the Technology of Inference and Decision

Descriptive Note:

Final technical rept. Jul 1975-Sep 1976

Corporate Author:

DECISIONS AND DESIGNS INC MCLEAN VA

Personal Author(s):

• Edwards, Ward
• Seaver, David A.

Report Date:

1976-10-01

Pagination or Media Count:

43.0

Abstract:

This report summarizes research on the technology inference and decision. The research focussed on three major themes validation of multiattribute utility models and assessment procedures, the assessment of group probabilities and utilities, and the elicitation and quantification of uncertainty. Both experimentation and simulation were used to find where errors in multiattribute utilities may exist, how extensive they are, and how they effect the final evaluative process. One study showed the additive multiattribute utility model was generally inconsistent with the expressed preferences of subjects. Simulation has shown that certain simple models may be good approximations of more complex models under specific conditions. However, often these conditions may not be present, so care must be taken in using the approximations. Theoretical results suggest that no entirely satisfactory method exists for combining individual probabilities and utilities into group probabilities and utilities.

Descriptors:

• *DECISION THEORY
• *GROUP DYNAMICS
• *JUDGEMENT(PSYCHOLOGY)
• APPROXIMATION(MATHEMATICS)
• MODELS
• PROBABILITY
• SIMULATION
• TRADE OFF ANALYSIS
• VALIDATION

Subject Categories:

• Psychology
• Operations Research

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE