Accession Number:

ADA048004

Title:

A Methodology for Comparison of Attrition Forecasting Models,

Descriptive Note:

Corporate Author:

CENTER FOR NAVAL ANALYSES ARLINGTON VA MARINE CORPS OPERATIONS ANALYSIS GROUP

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

1977-07-01

Pagination or Media Count:

46.0

Abstract:

This analysis develops a methodology for comparing forecasting models and examines in detail the ability of available attritionsuccess models to adequately predict the service performance of nongraduate Marines. Available models will almost always select graduates over nongraduates therefore, it is possible that these models cannot optimally select from among the remaining nongraduates -- some of whom the Marine Corps will be forced to accept. The data was disaggregated and the attrition of graduates and nongraduates was examined separately. The results of this analysis indicate that using a separate attritionsuccess model developed especially for nongraduates will not significantly improve the accuracy and reliability of prediction. The conclusion, therefore, is that existing models, which deal with an aggregated population, are both appropriate and sufficient. Author

Subject Categories:

  • Personnel Management and Labor Relations

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE