Information Perishing and Replenishment.
STANFORD UNIV CALIF DEPT OF ENGINEERING-ECONOMIC SYSTEMS
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This dissertation treats the dynamics of a decision makers value of infromation. A notion, widely held by decision analysts but tenuously defined, is that the value of any specific information diminishes over time. This concept, termed information perishing, is rigorously defined and illustrated by the use of a Markov model. The main assertions of the first section are 1 Information perishing is inevitable not only for the Markov model of information but for any state of information described by a probability distribution 2 For the Markov model the absolute value of the largest transient eigenvalue is an upper bound for the rate of information perishing and 3 The rate of perishing is a decreasing function of time. A second model of the decision process recognizes that many decisions in real life are triggered by events which may be described by some stochastic process. Without this uncertainty the decision maker could simply discount the value of information because of perishing and would reduce his problem to a static case however, the uncertainty in timing forces consideration of optimal policies of information replenishment. Rules of optimality are developed for singly and multiple occurring decisions.
- *DECISION THEORY
- MILITARY INTELLIGENCE
- MANAGEMENT INFORMATION SYSTEMS
- DECISION MAKING
- TIME DEPENDENCE
- PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION FUNCTIONS
- MARKOV PROCESSES
- INFORMATION PROCESSING
- RISK ANALYSIS
- Administration and Management
- Statistics and Probability
- Military Intelligence