Forecasting the Naval Enlisted Personnel Force Structure to Estimate Basic Pay.
Final rept. Feb-Oct 77,
NAVY PERSONNEL RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT CENTER SAN DIEGO CALIF
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A primary concern of Navy management is the ability to meet the Navys manpower requirements in terms of both the quantity and quality of personnel. Recruitment, promotion, retirement, and other managerial policies are all directly related to and restricted by the Military Personnel, Navy MPN budget. Because over 50 percent of the MPN budget is allocated for enlisted basic pay, special attention must be given to the accurate forecasting of enlisted populations. The Naval Pay Predictor, Enlisted NAPPE Model, designed to accomplish this objective, relies solely upon historical population data and user-supplied enlisted end-strengths. Time series analysis is used to determine a general set of forecasting models that adequately explain the historical data. Other statistical procedures, including those employed in costing the enlisted force and in estimating recruit input populations, are also detailed. Validation results indicating errors of less than .1 percent for total enlisted basic pay are presented. Author
- Economics and Cost Analysis