Accession Number:

ADA046651

Title:

A Case Study in Risk/Decision Analysis.

Descriptive Note:

Study project rept.,

Corporate Author:

DEFENSE SYSTEMS MANAGEMENT COLL FORT BELVOIR VA

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

1973-05-01

Pagination or Media Count:

49.0

Abstract:

The increasing emphasis being placed on risk analysis in DOD has made the subject a focal point for program managers. The individual services are required to estimate or subjectively determine the risk inherent in their programs by conducting a risk assessment. The case study developed in this report is an attempt to inject a quantification of risk based on the facts available and the use of probability and statistics. A decision analysis is then applied to assist the decision maker in definitizing his options on a dollar basis. Various trade-offs and evaluation criteria are used to transfer the degree of risk to this dollar base. Each cost schedule, and performance parameter is treated on an equal risk basis. Author

Subject Categories:

  • Administration and Management
  • Economics and Cost Analysis
  • Statistics and Probability

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE