Accession Number:

ADA045133

Title:

A Statistical Analysis of Western Pacific Tropical Cyclone Forecast Errors.

Descriptive Note:

Master's thesis,

Corporate Author:

NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CALIF

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

1977-06-01

Pagination or Media Count:

51.0

Abstract:

Western Pacific Tropical cyclone position forecast errors for 10 years 1966-1975 are statistically analyzed. Variations of errors versus a dozen parameters are examined and the trends over the 10 years are discussed. Discriminant analysis techniques were used to isolate categories where forecasts were likely to be above and below the median in East-West and North-South error components. The discriminant analysis was tested on 1976 data and the results are presented. It was confirmed that a small number of readily available parameters, such as location, maximum winds, and speed of movement, can, with reasonable effectiveness, classify a tropical cyclone forecast as representing a group either markedly above or below average errors. Author

Subject Categories:

  • Meteorology
  • Statistics and Probability

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE