Step-Through Simulation: A Method for Implementing Decision Analysis.
DECISIONS AND DESIGNS INC MCLEAN VA
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This report describes the initial development of the step-through variant of Monte Carlo simulation, a new procedure for implementing decision analysis or for training decision makers. Like regular Monte Carlo simulation it involves sampling possible aftermaths of an initial action, and generating a distribution of outcome values for it. However, the detailed structure andor assessments of the decision model are elicited as called for in the execution of each trial. It therefore permits substantial economy of elicitation if there are few trials. The step-through procedure also offers economy of elicitation and calculation over a traditional extensive-tree decision-analytic model without requiring simplifications or aggregations in the models conceptualization.
- Operations Research