Potential Distribution of the Rated Officer Force and Their Implications in Future Conflict.
AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OHIO SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING
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Changes in the composition of the USAF rated officer force are viewed as a stochastic process influenced by the decisions of individual service members and manpower planners. Data are developed based on the product of crews formed by weapon system and pilots or navigators per crew for the same weapon system. Rated officers are then aggregated into broad categories for further analysis. Multiple linear regression conforming to the standard linear model is used to develop the explicit forms of relationships between the numbers of pilots or navigators in the categories and relevant independent variables. The basic hypothesis tested is that pilots or navigators in a particular category are a function of aircraft in that same category. Some 20 models are developed which are then used to forecast future distributions of the rated officer force. The implications of the analysis are discussed in light of potential wartime needs for rated officers. The study concludes that the Standard Linear Model is apt for the problem addressed large variance is a characteristic of the manpower system under examination, and forecasting with reasonable accuracy in this way is virtually impossible. There also seems to be a tendency to overman pilot force and an apparent delay in planning for navigators relative to pilots.
- Personnel Management and Labor Relations