A Critical Analysis of Climatological Wind Data Used in the Forecast of Radioactive Debris Cloud Movement.
NAVAL RESEARCH LAB WASHINGTON D C
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Groves 1969, 1972 climatological wind field data is critically examined for the purpose of forecasting radioactive debris cloud motion. It is found that the data base used by Groves is too sparse to be climatologically representative. We also find that the wind field given by Groves implies the existence of heat and momentum sources not believed to be present in the upper atmosphere, and furthermore, the wind fields are unstable to eddy perturbations. These results suggest that the climatological averaging process is biased by poor spatial and temporal resolution. Eddy motions are thus averaged as part of the mean flow. It is concluded that for the purpose of forecasting debris cloud motion, climatological wind fields are useful for producing idealized calculations but are probably not very representative of the actual wind fields at a given time and place. A better model for such purposes would be a theoretical forecast model initialized on a regular basis from satellite radiance data. Author