Stochastic Models of the Distribution of Dyadic Warfare in Time.
CARNEGIE-MELLON UNIV PITTSBURGH PA DEPT OF STATISTICS
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Stochastic models are constructed to illuminate the dynamic incidence of international warfare during the 1816-1965 period. It is argued that the probabilistic structure is revealed most clearly through an analysis based on dyads of nations, thereby dissassembling such large wars as World War II. The conceptual focus is maintained on a clear delineation of heterogeneity over time and over actors and of contagion in both its addictive and infectious varieties. Departures from randomness are considered as modifications of the Poisson process. Methodological attention is directed at statistical analysis of the interarrival times between initiations of dyadic warfare. Cyclic behavior is investigated through a cosine wave-form variant of the Poisson process. A conclusion of infectious behavior is supported by a variety of analyses. An autoregressive model of order 4 is found to adequately fit the interarrival times and account for the infectious behavior. Author
- Statistics and Probability
- Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics