The Transition From Threat Situations to International Crises
Technical rept. 1 Jul 75-30 Sep 76,
UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LOS ANGELES INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS RESEARCH INST
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A new orientation to pre-crisis study is developed drawing upon concepts from international systems analysis, empirical research on international crises and insights from cybernetics about monitoring change in a system. Conceptions of threat are divided into threat as behavior and threat as perception. Threat as behavior is determined by monitoring international event interactions. Threat as perception is determined by the cognitive appraisals of international affairs analysts. Analyzing threat situations is viewed as a new criterion for anticipating international crises. A threat recognition model is proposed.
- Government and Political Science