Subjective assessment of Uncertainty,
RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF
Pagination or Media Count:
Properly assessing your subjective probabilities is extremely difficult, and is more of an art than a science. Ones subjective probability of an uncertain event should truly reflect his proper state of information if it is to be of any value at all for planning purposes. In this study the author points out many of the common cognitive influences, and biases which they lead, that people undergo, either consciously or unconsciously, in the intuitive assessment of probability. These heuristics and biases are not only prevalent in people of a variety of backgrounds but are also common in experienced researchers they think intuitively. A better understanding of these simple heuristics, and the biases to which they lead, by improving the ability for individuals to properly assess their true state of information, could improve judgements and decisions in situations of uncertainty. It is very important, therefore, that advisers and analysts who are involved in planning for uncertain future events be aware of, and consciously try to avoid, these influences.