A Kill Probability Model for a Multiple-Burst Attack of a Vehicle, Where the Probability of Igniting Spilled Fuel is Time Dependent
ARMY MATERIEL SYSTEMS ANALYSIS ACTIVITY ABERDEEN PROVING GROUND MD
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This report describes a method for computing the probability of defeating a vehicle with a series of consecutive bursts of fire. The vehicle assumed to be vulnerable to either mechanical damage or fire. A fire can be started by either puncturing the fuel system and starting a fire on the same burst, or igniting fuel which was spilled but not ignited by an earlier burst. The unique feature of this method is that the probability of igniting previously spilled fuel is allowed to depend on the number of previous punctures of the fuel system and on the times at which they occurred.
- Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics