Mathematical Decision Aids for the Task-Force Commander and His Staff.
GENERAL RESEARCH CORP MCLEAN VA WASHINGTON OPERATIONS
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The study analyzes the limitations of the mathematical tools of operations research and systems analysis within the complex decision environment of the Naval Task force. Part I, The Limits of Decision Automation, develops a conceptual framework which defines the present limitations of these tools for dealing with complex unstructured decision problems. Part II, Promising Areas for the Application of Mathematical Decision Aids, surveys the task force decision problems to identify promising areas for mathematical decision aids. The analysis uses a theoretical model of the decision process to compare the advantages and disadvantages of human versus automated and semiautomated decision methods. The study shows that the mathematical decision aids are most useful after the problem has been placed in a well-structured form. In particular, simplified models designed to estimate combat outcomes for alternative courses of action appear to be very promising. The tools of decision analysis, on the other hand, are most promising for relatively unstructured problems and for assisting during the problem structuring phase.
- Personnel Management and Labor Relations
- Statistics and Probability