Accession Number:

ADA022658

Title:

Quantitative Methods for Long-Range Environmental Forecasting. Long-Wave European Projections. Volume 2. Technical Volume

Descriptive Note:

Interim technical rept. no. 4, Mar 1973-Feb 1974

Corporate Author:

CACI INC-FEDERAL ARLINGTON VA

Report Date:

1974-03-01

Pagination or Media Count:

536.0

Abstract:

The overall purpose of this Interim Technical Report is to provide a basis for the improvements of long-range environmental forecasting through the use of quantitative methods. This volume provides the technical discussion of the model that was developed to forecast values of five central environmental descriptors for the European environment of the 1985-1995 period. The descriptor variables considered were international conflict, international alignment, national power base, internal instability, and international trade. The structure of the model consists of 12 equations which specify the various components of the descriptor variables. The coefficients of the model which is block-recursive are estimated using the least squares method. Forecasts of the five central environmental descriptors are provided by simulation of the model. Author

Subject Categories:

  • Economics and Cost Analysis
  • Government and Political Science

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE