Numerical Modeling of Climatic Change:  A Review of Problems and Prospects,

Gates,W. Lawrence

Accession Number:

ADA022266

Title:

Numerical Modeling of Climatic Change: A Review of Problems and Prospects,

Descriptive Note:

Corporate Author:

RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF

Personal Author(s):

Gates,W. Lawrence

Report Date:

1975-07-01

Pagination or Media Count:

27.0

Abstract:

The atmospheric, oceanic and cryospheric elements of the global climatic system are briefly considered, and along with the principal characteristics of climatic change. The development of numerical general circulation models of statistical-dynamical models is reviewed from the point of view of their inherent limitations for the simulation of climatic change. The performance of selected atmospheric models is summarized in terms of their simulation of the zonally-averaged January sea-level pressure and precipitation rate the differences among the models results are large, particularly in the lower latitudes, and the models errors compared with observation bear no clear relationship to the number of models levels. The further improvement of such models appears to rest with the introduction of more adequate parameterizations for convection and the surface boundary layer, and perhaps most importantly for climatic simulations, with the coupling of interactive models of the ocean, ice sheets and land surface character. The future of climate modeling is seen to involve the use of a hierarchy of models of various degrees of resolution. Special attention must be given to the trade-offs between the conventional global circulation models and a variety of statistical-dynamical models.