Accession Number:

ADA022262

Title:

Collecting and Analyzing Expert Group Judgment Data,

Descriptive Note:

Corporate Author:

RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF

Personal Author(s):

• Harman,Alvin J.
• Press,S. James

Report Date:

1975-07-01

Pagination or Media Count:

39.0

Abstract:

This paper presents methods for collecting and analyzing judgement from groups of experts. It addresses issues associated with resolving the procedural and administrative problems involved in selecting a panel of experts, in eliciting informed judgments about the degree of technological advance on relevant projects, and in designing a survey questionnaire for measuring those judgments. Three methods of multivariate analysis are described for quantifying and analyzing group judgment data collected from a panel of experts. Those of the methods that are known in earlier literature include multidimensional scaling of individual differences, and subjective probability procedures, including the Bayesian approach. A new procedure, which was developed specifically for this application, involves the use of simultaneous equation system models in which the response dependent variables are categorical and unordered. Author

Descriptors:

• *DECISION MAKING
• *WEAPON SYSTEM EFFECTIVENESS
• *JUDGEMENT(PSYCHOLOGY)
• MILITARY EQUIPMENT
• MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS
• FORECASTING
• PROBLEM SOLVING
• SCALING FACTOR
• SYSTEMS ANALYSIS
• BAYES THEOREM
• MILITARY PLANNING
• QUESTIONNAIRES
• DELPHI TECHNIQUES
• COLLECTING METHODS
• PANEL(COMMITTEE)
• SIMULTANEOUS EQUATIONS

Subject Categories:

• Administration and Management
• Psychology

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE