Overview of Population Forecasting for Small Areas,
RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF
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The paper is organized around three critical ingredients for future-oriented demographic analysis as applied to small areas. First is a thorough familiarity with the logic and limitations of each projection method. Second is informed judgment about the assumptions on which a projection or forecast has been based. Third is continual reappraisal of those assumptions and, when necessary, revision in the light of new information. Strengths and weaknesses of the several approaches considered are reviewed trend extrapolation, cohort-component methods, and labor market models. After that, the need for judgment and continued reappraisal is discussed.
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