Methodology of Fallout-Risk Assessment
INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES ALEXANDRIA VA ALEXANDRIA United States
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This paper analyzes the decomposition of radioactive fallout in attack environments of varying complexity with both deterministic and probabalistic winds. Based on the WSEG-10 Fallout Model, simplified calculational methods are developed to allow the determination of fallout risk for single weapons and clusters of closely spaced weapons. Monte Carlo methods are used that illustrate the nature of the probability distributions of fallout risk for large attacks with typical seasonal wind distributions for the United States.