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Application of Satellite Cloud-Motion Vectors to Hurricane Track Prediction,
MASSACHUSETTS INST OF TECH CAMBRIDGE DEPT OF METEOROLOGY
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The representation of the mean tropospheric flow by satellite-derived cloud-motion vectors is studied for use in a barotropic hurricane prediction model. The systematic use of these vectors is considered over areas not covered by rawinsonde data to aid the inital analysis of the flow pattern. Linear regression analysis is used to develop equations for the pressure-averaged tropospheric flow from data at only 1, 2, or 3 levels. The equations are derived from a large sample of rawinsonde observations, used as simulated cloud-motion vectors, from the tropical and subtropical latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The performance of the regression equations on independent data is considered, as is the loss of skill when satellite winds are used in the equations instead of rawinsonde winds. The satellite data is applied, in a pilot study, to two operational SANBAR hurricane forecasts, with inconclusive results. Author
APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE