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Post-Revolutionary Cuba in a Changing World.
RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF
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This report is an evaluation of changes in Cubas foreign policy perspectives, and their domestic bases. The Cuban Revolution has been institutionalized Fidel Castros strengthened political power now rests on an expanded coalition of military and technocratic elites. New Soviet commitments and postponement of debts unitl 1986 have boosted Cubas economy. Cubas foreign policy will likely emphasize six ambivalent, even contradictory elements Toward the Soviet Union 1 participation in detente, which may mask 2 a deeper interest in reducing economic dependence from Moscow without sacrificing good relations toward the United States 3 cautious negotiations for advanced technology and trade, and 4 selective nonviolent U.S. confrontations toward Latin America America 5 unity and alliance with progressive, nationalist governments, possibly extending in the future to Cuban provision of 6 conventional military assistance to an ally. Further, the processes of detente and normalization may reduce Cubas significance within the inter-American community.
APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE