Security Implications of Alternative Soviet Energy Policies Toward Europe: 1976 - 1981.
INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES ARLINGTON VA INTERNATIONAL AND SOCIAL STUDIES DIV
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On the basis of estimates, four alternative Soviet export policies are posited 1 Eastern Europe does not receive any oil from the Soviet Union 2 all East European oil needs are satisfied by the USSR 3 East European oil needs are partially satisfied by the USSR and 4 consumption is restricted in the Soviet Union and East Europe. These alternatives are then discussed in terms of their economic impact on the bloc and in the light of Soviet political and security interests in Europe. The impact of the alternative Soviet export policies on Western security interests is analyzed against the backdrop of the disruptive effects of the 1973-74 energy crisis on the Western alliance and Western Europes energy balance for the 1976-81 period. The USSRs potential to exert leverage on the countries of Western Europe via energy exports is evaluated. The broader effects of Soviet energy policies on the comparative cohesion of the Eastern and Western alliance systems are given particular consideration.
- Economics and Cost Analysis
- Government and Political Science
- Non-electrical Energy Conversion