Demand Forecasting with Program Factors
ARMY INVENTORY RESEARCH OFFICE PHILADELPHIA PA
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Empirical demand forecasting studies have raised doubt about the often-made assumption that repair part demand is proportional to end-item usage. The study was made to test this assumption using a data base consisting of demands on the Army Aviation Systems Command National Inventory Point AVSCOM NICP for thousands of stocked items. A simulation of the NICP supply function was used to test the assumption and various proposed forecasting algorithms. The criterion was least holding and ordering cost for constant time-weighted requisitions short. The assumption that demand is proportional to end-item program was supported at least for the items responsible for the largest part of the costs, and an improved algorithm was found.
- Logistics, Military Facilities and Supplies