An Analysis of the Naval Personnel Pay Predictor (Enlisted Model).
NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CALIF
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The Naval Personnel Pay Predictor Enlisted Model is used by the Bureau of Naval Personnel as a tool for predicting the total annual basic pay for the enlisted force as an input to the budget process. A major source of error in the model was found to be the prediction of the length of service LOS vector, and an attempt to improve this prediction was made. The extreme complexity of the model was found to be unnecessary, and a simple exponential smoothing subroutine for LOS prediction did as well or better than the original model. It was also found that a double exponential smoothing subroutine, taking into account the trends in the force structure, would almost uniformly improve the one year prediction from the model.
- Personnel Management and Labor Relations