Accession Number:

ADA017550

Title:

The Effect of Uncertainty on Lanchester-Type Equations of Combat.

Descriptive Note:

Master's thesis,

Corporate Author:

NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CALIF

Personal Author(s):

• Craig,James David

Report Date:

1975-09-01

Pagination or Media Count:

172.0

Abstract:

This thesis examines whether the complex random process of combat can be adequately represented by a deterministic model. Does one destroy any of the essential features of the random combat process by considering a deterministic model as representing the average course of combat. Insights into the fundamental differences between deterministic and stochastic models are obtained by comparing the deterministic and stochastic versions of the so-called Lanchester square-law attrition process. Three aspects of the models are compared, with several hypotheses examined for each Probability of winning, the expected force level time history, and the variance of the expected force levels. From the analysis it is concluded that if the forces are not near parity, and if the initial force levels are relatively large, a deterministic model can adequately represent combat. Author

Descriptors:

• *Battles
• *Stochastic processes
• Uncertainty
• Lanchester equations
• Mathematical models
• Probability
• Mathematical prediction
• Combat effectiveness
• Battalion level organizations
• Attrition
• Casualties
• Survival(Personnel)
• Numerical integration
• Computer programming

Subject Categories:

• Statistics and Probability
• Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE