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The Prediction of Sea-Surface Temperature Anomalies Using a 10-Level Primitive Equation Model.
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Preliminary experiments in the numerical prediction of large scale sea-surface temperature anomalies are made using a 10-level primitive equation model with 300-km horizontal resolution covering a rectangular basin in the North Pacific. The model is first integrated over an 11-year period to statistical equilibrium using time dependent wind and thermal forcing. The monthly normal climatology, generated by the model in this long term integration, is then used along with observed sea-surface temperature anomalies to define the initial state. The results show that inclusion of salinity in the model may produce more accurate predictions of high latitude cold anomalies. The most accurate of the predictions removed all of the anomalous diffusion terms in the governing equations. Data for the observed temperature anomalies were not available in depth, thus initialization of the anomalies below the surface was superficial. Consequently, the effects of vertical advection were not fully realized, indicating a need for future experimentation with a more accurately defined initial profile of the anomalies in the initial conditions. Author
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