Mathematics of Strategic Indirect Bomb Damage Assessment for Point Targets,
RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF
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The report derives mathematical formulas for inferring the status of a hardened point target attacked by a nuclear weapon from the distance between the detonation and the target. With observational inaccuracy described by a circular normal distribution, the probability of the target being damaged is expressed by the target damage function used for perfect observations, with the weapontarget parameters suitably transformed. Based on the Defense Intelligence Agency damage function, the formula applies to others also. Results are extended to derive the probability of target damage as a function of the number of weapons shot at the target and the number of BDA observations.
- Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics