Accession Number:

ADA017068

Title:

Numerical Methods for Analyzing World Dynamics Models.

Descriptive Note:

Technical rept.,

Corporate Author:

NAVAL UNDERWATER SYSTEMS CENTER NEWPORT R I

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

1975-09-09

Pagination or Media Count:

62.0

Abstract:

This report is an extensive investigation of WORLD 2, the mathematical model used to forecast changes in the worlds socio-economic system proposed by J. Forrester in 1971. Its purpose is to develop methods and techniques by which a rapid, facile study of other, more complicated models can be made. The significance of WORLD 2 major assumptions relative to its output are studied by devising and applying various computer techniques to the basic model and several variations of it. Standard small-scale sensitivity tests, reverse running, and scaling inverse sensitivity tests were among the techniques used to determine the extent of alteration necessary to produce in WORLD 2--without any structural modification--outcomes divergent from Forresters calculations, thereby making possible identification of significant variables and sectors.

Subject Categories:

  • Economics and Cost Analysis
  • Sociology and Law

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE