The Utilization of the Behavioral Sciences in Long Range Forecasting and Policy Planning
Semiannual technical rept. no. 5, 1 Jan-30 Jun 1975
OHIO STATE UNIV RESEARCH FOUNDATION COLUMBUS
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The goals of the project have been the development of forecasting techniques to the point where the impact of alternative U.S. foreign policies toward specific countries can be assessed in alternative strategic environments. As a way of achieving this objective, the Project is developing computer simulations of several Middle-East oil producing nations. In doing this, assumptions about relations between U.S. policies and policy actions and country and region specific indicators of stability are being expressed in a mathematical language. Results from current ARPA supported basic research efforts are being used to provide a basis for defining and testing the relations between these indicators. In a future phase of the Project, mathematical control theory and subjective dynamic programming augmented with user stated objectives in each country will be applied to identify best mixes of U.S. policy toward each country. As a substantive target, U.S. relations with Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, and Algeria are being studied. Thus far the emphasis has been upon Iran and Saudi Arabia. Each country simulation is divided roughly into four modules and agriculture module, an oil module, a human resources and national accounts module, and a government or decision-making module. In order that these simulations have maximal impact upon the policy planning community and in order to take advantage of the knowledge of the planners, the simulations are being developed in close interaction with policy planners in both the Defense and State Department.
- Government and Political Science