Stochastic Simulations of Long-Range Forecasting Models for Less Developed Regions
Interim technical rept.
CACI INC-FEDERAL ARLINGTON VA
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The report describes progress made to date on the development of methodologies for long-range forecasting of five central environmental descriptors--national power base, international trade, international alignment, internal instability, international conflict--for the less developed regions of Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East. The report describes 1 the regions used in the analysis and their membership 2 the strategic importance of the regions 3 the differences between the regions and the developed nations Europe that required a reoperationalization of the central environmental descriptors and their predictors and b the structuring of the forecasting model and 4 estimation techniques to be used to generate forecasting parameters to be used in stochastic simulations.
- Government and Political Science