A Comparison of Methods for Calculating Non-Time-Dependent Reliability
PICATINNY ARSENAL DOVER NJ
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A major interest exists in improved ways for calculating reliability point estimates for non-time-dependent single-shot devices such as those found in tactical nuclear weapons. Often decisions involving many millions of dollars and even human lives depend upon the accuracy of the models used and the estimates obtained. Seven methods are investigated which have been considered or used to calculate reliability estimates. Of those techniques investigated, four are in use at the present time. These four 1 SABRE, 2 GO, 3 SYSTEMEX and 4 Failure Equations are compared and an indication is made of their strong and weak points. No single method was found to be universally superior for all uses and indeed no single method has been universally accepted by all agencies dealing with tactical nuclear weapons. Moreover, the sensitive nature of these items has made the use of two independent analyses by separate techniques a very desirable cross-check on the analyst.
- Electrical and Electronic Equipment
- Numerical Mathematics
- Manufacturing and Industrial Engineering and Control of Production Systems