Accession Number:

ADA010914

Title:

The Economic Impact of an Interruption in United States Petroleum Imports: 1975-2000

Descriptive Note:

Corporate Author:

CENTER FOR NAVAL ANALYSES ALEXANDRIA VA NAVAL WARFARE ANALYSIS GROUP

Personal Author(s):

• Holcombe, Randall G.

Report Date:

1974-11-01

Pagination or Media Count:

124.0

Abstract:

The objective of this paper is to estimate the economic impact of a possible interruption in petroleum imports during the period from 1975 to the year 2000. It begins by incorporating the data of the recent oil embargo into an input-output model of the U.S. economy, in order to assess the economic impact of the interruption in imports. The model will be used as a framework for estimating the impact of all sizes of oil import interruptions, from small interruptions to a complete cutoff of imports. Several different scenarios of petroleum supply and demand are developed indicating the uncertainties in our energy future, but also reflecting the fact that there are many policy options that can be chosen in order to encourage -- and discourage -- self-sufficiency in energy.

Descriptors:

• *ECONOMICS
• *INTERNATIONAL TRADE
• FORECASTING
• FUEL CONSUMPTION
• OILS
• SOURCES

Subject Categories:

• Economics and Cost Analysis
• Fuels

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE