Accession Number:

ADA010145

Title:

Time Series Models for Birth Forecasting.

Descriptive Note:

Research rept.,

Corporate Author:

CALIFORNIA UNIV BERKELEY OPERATIONS RESEARCH CENTER

Personal Author(s):

• Saboia,Joao L. M.

Report Date:

1975-04-01

Pagination or Media Count:

64.0

Abstract:

Autoregressive integrated moving average ARIMA models are developed for the birth time series, and their relationship with the classical models for population growth is investigated. Parsimonious versions of the ARIMA models are obtained which retain the most important pieces of information including the length of generation of the population. The technique is applied to human population data Mexico and Norway and forecasts are obtained. A causal model relating marriages to births is also developed and applied.

Descriptors:

• *TIME SERIES ANALYSIS
• *POPULATION
• *BIRTH
• MATHEMATICAL MODELS
• FORECASTING
• NORWAY
• MEXICO

Subject Categories:

• Sociology and Law

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE