Determining the Distribution of Procurement Lead Times Using the Graphical Evaluation and Review Technique.
ARMY MATERIEL COMMAND TEXARKANA TEX INTERN TRAINING CENTER
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This investigation is an attempt to apply the GERT approach to the problem of determining the probability density function for procurement lead time. For analysis, it is assumed that the lead time for a procurement action can be treated as a random variable. Two methods of solution within the GERT framework are proposed analytic solution and computer simulation. Significant conclusions drawn are that the analytic solution requires more restrictive assumptions than the computer simulation, and that more data concerning the procurement process is needed to test the model. The outcome of the report is not that a probability model is the best of all possible predictors, rather that it has been demonstrated that a probability model can be used. The report also serves to show the amount of work involved in both a hand calculation and an automated calculation. A recommendation that stems from this comparison is that the use of automated data collection and analysis be explored to help resolve the lead time prediction problem.
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