Discrete Time Series Forecast of Accident/Injury Frequency Rates in the Army Materiel Command.
ARMY MATERIEL COMMAND TEXARKANA TEX INTERN TRAINING CENTER
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The research report attacks the problem of providing the safety engineer with a forecasting model that could be used as an effectiveness measure for newly instituted safety programs. Two mathematical forecasting techniques conventional exponentially smoothed and adaptive exponentially smoothed forecasting are used to obtain a predicted accidentinjury frequency rate. The accuracies of these two techniques are compared and it is found that the conventionally smoothed forecasts provide the most accurate predicting model, but are not considered accurate enough to be used as a measure for program effectiveness.
- Safety Engineering
- Environmental Health and Safety