Accession Number:

ADA008580

Title:

Hindsight/Foresight: The Effect of Outcome Knowledge on Judgment Under Uncertainty

Descriptive Note:

Technical rept.

Corporate Author:

OREGON RESEARCH INST EUGENE

Personal Author(s):

• Fischhoff, Baruch

Report Date:

1975-04-07

Pagination or Media Count:

37.0

Abstract:

One major difference between historical and non-historical judgment is that the historical judge typically knows how things turned out. In Experiment 1, receipt of such outcome knowledge was found to increase the postdicted likelihood of reported events and change the perceived relevance of event-descriptive data, regardless of the likelihood of the outcome and the truth of the report. Judges were, however, largely unaware of the effect that outcome knowledge had on their perceptions. As a result, they overestimated what they would have known without outcome knowledge Experiment 2, as well as what others Experiment 3 actually did know without outcome knowledge. It is argued that this lack of awareness can seriously restrict ones ability to judge or learn from the past.

Descriptors:

• *DECISION MAKING
• INFORMATION PROCESSING
• PREDICTIONS
• UNCERTAINTY

Subject Categories:

• Psychology

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE