A Stochastic Model of Regime Change in Latin America,
CENTER FOR NAVAL ANALYSES ARLINGTON VA
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The paper presents a mathematical model of regime change in Latin America the model is a finite Markov chain with stationary transition probabilities. A first-order Markov chain was found to fit the data satisfactorily, although there were indications that systematic biases existed. More sophisticated models which relax some of the assumptions of finite Markov chains may result in a better fit between model and data.
- Government and Political Science