Automated Long Range (Analog) Forecast Model
FLEET NUMERICAL WEATHER CENTRAL MONTEREY CA MONTEREY United States
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Naval forces have two principle requirements for long-range weather forecasts 1 To protect ships in transit, and 2 to aid in operational planning. Since the state-of-the-art precludes adequate dynamic model forecasts beyond a few days, a synoptic climatology approach has been developed for longer ranges. Additional products include sea condition probabilities, a list of best analog dates, and Terminal Probability Forecasts for selected Naval Installations. Four years of statistical verification have consistently demonstrated skill over persistence beyond two days, with skill over climatology out to six to seven days prior to 1973 and out to eight days or more since then.