Accession Number:

ADA007846

Title:

Automated Long Range (Analog) Forecast Model

Descriptive Note:

Technical Report

Corporate Author:

FLEET NUMERICAL WEATHER CENTRAL MONTEREY CA MONTEREY United States

Report Date:

1974-12-01

Pagination or Media Count:

80.0

Abstract:

Naval forces have two principle requirements for long-range weather forecasts 1 To protect ships in transit, and 2 to aid in operational planning. Since the state-of-the-art precludes adequate dynamic model forecasts beyond a few days, a synoptic climatology approach has been developed for longer ranges. Additional products include sea condition probabilities, a list of best analog dates, and Terminal Probability Forecasts for selected Naval Installations. Four years of statistical verification have consistently demonstrated skill over persistence beyond two days, with skill over climatology out to six to seven days prior to 1973 and out to eight days or more since then.

Subject Categories:

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE