Statistical Critical Path Analysis in Acyclic Stochastic Networks: Statistical PERT.
Themis optimization research program,
TEXAS A AND M UNIV COLLEGE STATION INST OF STATISTICS
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This paper describes and illustrates a comprehensive new procedure for obtaining information about the distribution of a projects completion time when the project is comprised of a large number of activities and the time required to complete an individual activity once it can be begun is a random variable. The project is represented as an acyclic network whose arcs correspond to the project activities. This network is simplified by replacing various activity configurations by single equivalent activities and then decomposed into several subnetworks. The distribution and moments of each subnetworks completion time are bounded and approximated on the basis of two percentiles from each activitys completion time distribution by using some mathematical programming techniques and a new result in the theory of networks. The projects completion time distribution is then approximated by combining the approximate subnetwork distributions. The computer programs required to implement the general procedure are listed and documented.
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