Accession Number:

ADA001338

Title:

Model Variations in Credibility Theory.

Descriptive Note:

Research rept.,

Corporate Author:

CALIFORNIA UNIV BERKELEY OPERATIONS RESEARCH CENTER

Personal Author(s):

• Jewell,William S.

Report Date:

1974-08-01

Pagination or Media Count:

69.0

Abstract:

Classical credibility theory is a linearized Bayesian forecasting method, in which the expected value of the next observation is obtained as a mixture of a prior mean and the sample mean of observed data. In this paper, the author considers a variety of extensions to this model which appear to have practical importance. The main tool is least-squares theory.

Descriptors:

• *RISK
• *FORECASTING
• *BAYES THEOREM
• APPROXIMATION(MATHEMATICS)
• LEAST SQUARES METHOD
• DISTRIBUTION FUNCTIONS
• THEOREMS

Subject Categories:

• Economics and Cost Analysis
• Operations Research

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE