Decision Analysis as an Element in an Operational Decision Aiding System.
Final technical rept. no. 1,
DECISIONS AND DESIGNS INC MCLEAN VA
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The paper reports on one of several parallel initial efforts on a research project to develop operational decision aids. It focuses on the potential contribution of modern decision analysis to the action selection process as opposed to the data preparation process at the task force command level. The conceptual feasibility of six decision analysis variants was tested by applying them to representative decision situations through workshop trials, involving experienced CTFs and decision analysts. Work was initiated on developing the more promising variants as operational prototypes for more systematic evaluation in live naval settings, notably through interactive computer graphics. A preliminary attempt was made to relate variants to a list of command needs performance measures appropriate to tactical decision situations characterized by fleet function and ultimately by other taxonomic dimensions.
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