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Variations of Alternative Futures in the Conflict with Boko Haram

Descriptive Note:

[Technical Report, Master's Thesis]

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Boko Harams emergence in northern Nigeria represents a significant security challenge. Its cooperative association with other regional terrorist organizations expand this challenge beyond its current environment and into the region. Furthermore, Boko Harams Increasing capacity and capability could allow this regional threat to blossom from simply a local and operational Challenge into a significant strategic problem for the United States and its allies. In seeking to address these security concerns, the US employed assistance across the elements of national power to the Nigerian government, attempting to reinforce its counterinsurgency COIN operations. However, these efforts are likely insufficient to have any real effect on the insurgency and its violence. This paper begins with a deconstruction of the insurgencys current operating environment primarily focusing on the conflicts political situation, military elements, social issues. economic factors, U.S. strategy, Boko Haram strategy, and the Nigerian strategy. Then, it identifies critical factors affecting the conflict, and using a variation of alternative futures analysis, it attempts to determine the likelihood of an end to the conflict through the current combined US and Nigerian counterinsurgency actions.

Subject Categories:

  • Geography
  • Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics
  • Unconventional Warfare

Distribution Statement:

[A, Approved For Public Release]