Accession Number:

AD1173678

Title:

Probabilistic Environmental Modeling System for Munitions Mobility

Descriptive Note:

[Technical Report, Interim Report]

Corporate Author:

GEOLOGICAL SURVEY RESTON VAUS Naval Research Laboratory

Personal Author(s):

• Palmsten, Margaret L
• Penko, Allison M

Report Date:

2020-09-01

Pagination or Media Count:

70

Abstract:

The Strategic Environmental Research and Development Programs Underwater Munitions Response effort seeks to assess the environment where munitions are found over real-time and historical periods. A key aspect of understanding munitions mobility and burial in the underwater environment is being able to characterize the waves, currents, and morphologic change as a function of time. This document describes efforts to develop a modeling system to nowcast and hindcast the underwater environment where munitions are found. In the first year of the project, we focused on testing the capability of a coupled hydro- and morphodynamic model, Delft3D, to provide accurate hydrodynamics and morphodynamics. In the second and third year of the project, which is the focus of this report, we coupled Delft3D to the Underwater Munitions Expert System UnMES. UnMES is a probabilistic model designed to estimate the mobility and burial of munitions. A primary result of this phase of the project was production of cartographic visualizations of UnMES results.

Descriptors:

• bayesian networks
• probabilistic models
• munitions
• coordinate systems
• research facilities
• unexploded ammunition
• environment
• expert systems
• probability distributions
• computational science
• grids
• models
• probability
• reasoning
• abstracts
• coastal engineering
• engineering

Subject Categories:

• Statistics and Probability
• Underwater Ordnance
• Physical and Dynamic Oceanography

Distribution Statement:

[A, Approved For Public Release]