Accession Number:



Avoiding Black Swans in Future Wars: How National Economics Could Dictate the Outcome of a Future Sino-American War

Descriptive Note:

[Technical Report, Monograph]

Corporate Author:

US Army School for Advanced Military Studies

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:


Pagination or Media Count:



The economic implications of a protracted war between the United States and China promise a future fraught with uncertainties about the prospects of either militarys abilities to win and preserve their states strategic standing. The likelihood is high that a war between the United States and China would be long and costly, where the key to victory lies not in the ability to break any battlefield stalemate but rather in a contest between each states economic endurance. Both China and the United States bring particular economic advantages and disadvantages that shape their pursuit of victory. Through the lens of each states national economies, this research seeks to understand the strategic and operational implications of a future Sino-American war scenario set in the Indo-Pacific in 2036.

Subject Categories:

  • Economics and Cost Analysis
  • Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics

Distribution Statement:

[A, Approved For Public Release]