A New Military Retention Prediction Model: Machine Learning for High-Fidelity Forecasting
[Technical Report, Final Report]
INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES ALEXANDRIA VA
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Using machine learning algorithms and 18 years of data, we predict individual-level attrition among active duty personnel in all military Services, with hold-out sample prediction accuracies typically exceeding 70. Importantly, our methodology accommodates both right and left-censoring of observed career paths, and significantly outperforms traditional survival analysis. Using these individual-level predictions, we generate aggregate predicted force profiles which closely align with historical actuals. This and other features offer a rich slate of observations for further empirical analysis, and suggest new policy levers for managing attrition.
- Personnel Management and Labor Relations
- Information Science
- Military Forces and Organizations