Accession Number:



Aircraft Structural Reliability and Risk Analysis Handbook - Volume 2: Structural Fatigue Degradation and Probability of Failure Examples

Descriptive Note:

[Technical Report, Final Report]

Corporate Author:

Air Force Research Laboratory

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:


Pagination or Media Count:



This handbook provides examples of how to calculate single flight probability of failure SFPOF as a result of fatigue degradation of a structure. The examples begin with one random variable fracture toughness and increase incomplexity to three random variables fracture toughness, equivalent initial damage size EIDS, and maximum stress during a flight. A final example demonstrates how to model the effect of nondestructive inspections on the SFPOF using the probability of detecting a fatigue crack of a given size. All examples are worked using Monte Carlo simulation. The algorithms used were written as macros within Microsoft Excel, and are provided in appendices. Procedures for determining the probability distributions for the EIDS and the maximum stress during a flight are presented. Uncertainty about the probability distributions for the random variables and in the resulting SFPOF are also discussed.


Subject Categories:

  • Aircraft
  • Mechanics

Distribution Statement:

[A, Approved For Public Release]