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Full Envelope Templates for Low Magnitude Discrimination and Yield Estimation at Local and Regional Distances

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[Technical Report, Final Report]

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Monitoring seismologists have successfully used seismic coda for event discrimination and yield estimation for over a decade. In practice seismologists typically analyze long-duration, S-coda signals with high signal-to-noise ratios SNR at regional and teleseismic distances, since the single back-scattering model reasonably predicts decay of the late coda. However, seismic monitoring requirements are shifting towards smaller, locally recorded events that exhibit low SNR and short signal lengths. To be successful at characterizing events recorded at local distances, we must utilize the direct-phase arrivals, as well as the earlier part of the coda, which is dominated by multiple forward scattering. To remedy this problem, we have developed a new hybrid method known as full-waveform envelope template matching to improve predicted envelope fits over the entire waveform and account for direct-wave and early coda complexity. We accomplish this by including a multiple forward-scattering approximation in the envelope modeling of the early coda. The new hybrid envelope templates are designed to fit local and regional full waveforms and produce low-variance amplitude estimates, which will improve yield estimation and discrimination between earthquakes and explosions. To demonstrate the new technique, we applied our full-waveform envelope template-matching method to the six known North Korean DPRK underground nuclear tests. We successfully discriminated the event types and estimated the yield for all six nuclear tests.


Subject Categories:

  • Numerical Mathematics
  • Theoretical Mathematics

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[A, Approved For Public Release]